債券該在降息還是升息時購買？這樣做，讓你投資事半功倍

債券該在降息還是升息時購買？這樣做，讓你投資事半功倍

債券該在降息還是升息時購買，這個問題非常有趣，因為每個人根據自身操作策略的不同，合適的買入時機也會有所差異。

升息時購買債券

在升息時期，由於債券利率通常會高於聯準會（FED）公佈的定存利率，因此債券的到期殖利率變得較高，這意味著在這個時候購買債券，一年內的平均利息會比較可觀。

然而，升息通常是一段持續的過程，除非你在升息週期的尾聲進場，否則債券價格會隨著升息的推進逐漸下跌，中間債券的淨值也會出現下滑。

這種策略比較適合長期投資者，通常要持有到聯準會開始降息才能見到效果。我個人採取的是這種策略，目前以台幣本位計算幾乎打平，但如果以外幣本位來看，未實現的虧損還不小。

因為我購買的都是A1以上等級的債券，所以只要持有到降息時，淨值的未實現損失會變成未實現收益，而中間領取的利息收益則更可觀。

在台灣，購買債券並不適合用來賺取價差，因為銀行的複委託交易價差和手續費都相對較高，除非遇到大幅波動的市場，否則手續費就可能吃掉所有獲利。

當然，購買債券還需關注含息報酬率，只要能夠維持比一年期台幣定存利率高，那就是一筆不錯的投資。

另外，台幣本位計算方法會將所有外幣換算回台幣來計算損益，這是台灣投資人應該遵循的計算方法，相較於銀行提供的外幣本位，這個方式更準確。

降息時購買債券

當降息開始時，債券價格會一路上升，儘管中間可能會有短暫的回調，但只要利率沒達到最低點，債券的價值會不斷攀升。

這種方式適合希望賺取價差的投資者，但由於降息消息一出，債券價格往往已經先漲了一波，因此有追高的風險。

我個人不偏好這種操作方式，因為它適合短期或中期投資，不需要持有太久便可出手債券。

市場預期心理的重要性

在升息開始之前，債券價格就會開始大跌，這是因為市場預期未來會升息，這與股票或其他金融商品的走勢類似。

同樣的，在降息開始前，債券價格往往已經提前上漲一波，市場預期未來定存利率會越來越低。因此，投資者必須考慮市場的預期心理，提前幾個月做好佈局，避免買高或賣低的情況發生。

希望這篇文章能對您的投資決策有所幫助。

When Is the Best Time to Buy Bonds? During Rate Hikes or Rate Cuts? Here’s What You Need to Know

The question of whether to buy bonds during rate hikes or rate cuts is quite interesting because the right time to buy largely depends on your individual investment strategy.

Buying Bonds During Rate Hikes

During rate hikes, bond yields tend to be higher than the Federal Reserve’s published deposit rates, which means that the bond’s yield to maturity becomes more attractive. This makes it an ideal time to purchase bonds, as the average annual interest will be higher.

However, rate hikes are usually a prolonged period, and unless you buy towards the end of the cycle, bond prices will likely drop further as rates continue to rise. The net value of bonds may experience a decline during this period.

This approach suits long-term investors who can hold onto bonds until the Fed starts cutting rates. Personally, I follow this strategy. While my holdings are roughly break-even when calculated in Taiwan dollars, they show significant unrealized losses when viewed in foreign currencies.

Since all the bonds I’ve purchased are rated A1 or higher, holding them until rate cuts will turn unrealized losses into gains, and the interest earned along the way becomes an additional realized profit.

In Taiwan, buying bonds is not suitable for earning price differentials because banks charge relatively high commissions and fees for foreign bond purchases. Unless there is significant market volatility, these costs can eat up your profits.

Of course, you also need to pay attention to the bond’s total return, which should ideally surpass the interest rate of a one-year Taiwan dollar fixed deposit.

Moreover, when calculating bond returns, using the Taiwan-dollar-based method (converting all foreign currency back into Taiwan dollars) provides a more accurate picture of your actual gains or losses, rather than relying on the foreign-currency-based method provided by banks.

Buying Bonds During Rate Cuts

When rate cuts begin, bond prices tend to rise steadily, though there might be brief pullbacks. As long as interest rates have not bottomed out, bond prices will continue to increase.

This approach is better suited for investors looking to profit from price differentials, but since bond prices usually spike as soon as rate cuts are announced, there is a risk of buying at a high.

Personally, I’m not a fan of this method, as it focuses on short- to medium-term trades, allowing you to sell bonds more quickly.

The Importance of Market Sentiment

Before a rate hike starts, bond prices often plummet in anticipation, reflecting the market’s expectations for future rate increases. This behavior is similar to that of stocks or other financial products.

Conversely, before rate cuts, bond prices may surge, as the market expects future deposit rates to drop. Investors must take market sentiment into account and prepare several months in advance to avoid buying at high prices or selling at low ones.

I hope this article has been helpful in guiding your investment decisions.